The Bavarian state bank admits bitcoin capitalization growth to $1 trillion already in 2020. The main trigger is halving, which is expected next spring.

The Bavarian State Bank Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) published a report dedicated to bitcoin. According to the document, bank analysts see a strong correlation between the market value of bitcoin and the number of coins mined. In their opinion, bitcoin is intended for the role of superhard money and next year it will reach the same hardness as gold. This will be facilitated by mining reward halving (halving), which is expected to happen in the spring of 2020. In 2024, when the next halving will take place, the hardness of bitcoin will allegedly outperform gold.

Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach $1 trillion after halving in 2020, the bank admits. This will be fueled by the global trend towards quantitative easing, and the emergence of an increasing number of bonds with negative yield. In such circumstances, market players will look for new assets that can preserve value.

 

Gold prices are already rising. In early September 2019, the price of an ounce of gold exceeded $1,550 for a short time.

The attractiveness of gold lies in the fact that the offer of this asset in the market cannot be sharply and arbitrarily increased. One way or another, the supply of gold has a limitation that makes it a fairly strong asset. For comparison: palladium reserves in the world are much smaller than gold, but its supply to the market can be increased quite quickly (the relationship between stocks and current production, the so-called “easy money” trap).

But even gold does not have such strength as bitcoin, whose emission is strictly limited to 21 million.

At the same time, bank analysts advise caution about the forecast, because "even the best statistical model could fail miserably in predicting the future."